Will Cohen's testimony lead to President Trump being kicked out of office? Probably not
The possibility of Trump's impeachment has been making waves in the news due to his former lawyer Michael Cohen pleading guilty to eight criminal counts, including campaign finance violations. However, despite all the legal troubles surrounding President Trump it seems like he will not be kicked out of office. Trump's supporters still think Trump is a great president and Republican politicians still support their president.
The Crimes Surrounding Donald Trump
The most notable thing that Cohen said was that he made payments "for [the] principal purpose of influencing the election" under the instruction of the "candidate" running for federal office. Although Cohen did not explicitly mention Trump's name, the candidate Cohen was working for at the time was Donald Trump. Additionally, Paul Manafort was convicted of filing false tax returns on Ukrainian political consulting income, failing to report foreign bank accounts in 2012, and of bank fraud charges that included lying to obtain millions of dollars in loans.
Since these people surrounding President Trump are admitting to crimes and being convicted of crimes, one would think that the president would have a good chance of being kicked out of office, but that may not be the case. President Trump seems to have the uncanny ability to dodge legal trouble and maintain Republican support. This means that the only chance for an impeachment trial is if democrats gain control of the House of Representatives or if something really serious happens that causes Trump to lose Republican support.
Trump's Republican Support
President Trump losing Republican support doesn't seem likely considering that he has already made several policy and political mistakes but has somehow maintained the Republican party's support. Trump has insulted minorities, enacted policies that put inflationary pressures on the US' economy, and seems to have participated in criminal activity but still has support from Republican politicians and voters. However, it is worth noting that Trump has lost some support amongst farmers due to the effect Trump's tariffs are having on farmers (causing farmers to lose millions of dollars on agricultural exports). If this loss of support could somehow transfer to Trump’s base then he has a much better chance at getting kicked out of office.
Trump Probably Won’t Get Kicked Out of Office
In short, President Trump will probably not be impeached. In the history of the United States, only two presidents have ever been impeached, Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson, and both presidents were later acquitted. Former President Nixon was almost impeached, but he resigned before the impeachment trial since he was sure that he would be removed from office. Admittedly, President Trump’s indiscretions seem to be most similar to Nixon’s, so I wouldn’t say that Trump’s impeachment would be out of the question. And if Trump knew that he was going to be impeached I would venture to say that Trump, even if many political analysts say that he’s guaranteed to be kicked out of office, would, unlike Nixon, go through the impeachment trial because Trump’s large ego would convince himself that he wouldn’t lose an impeachment trial.
Getting two-thirds of the senate to vote Trump out of office is a big complication because democrats would need a minority of Republicans in the US Senate to agree that Trump should be kicked out of office and as mentioned earlier, many Republicans are still supporting President Trump. So, overall, it looks like Trump won’t be kicked out of office, he may be impeached if the democrats gain a majority in the house, but the chance of him being kicked out of office is slim to none.
Impeachment May Cost Trump the 2020 Election
However, something people haven’t talked about is the probability of Trump being re-elected. If Trump gets impeached, then this could impact his re-election or at least could be a predictor of if he will win the 2020 election. Usually, re-election of a president largely depends on the state of the American economy, but in Trump’s case his re-election may not depend only on the state of the economy but also the public’s perception of if Trump has actually participated in illegal or corrupt activities. Consequently, if Trump is impeached but later acquitted, then Trump may lose re-election because the impeachment trial may create the perception among Americans that Trump is corrupt.
Featured Image Source: Variety