Will Donald Trump win the 2020 election? It looks like he will.
President Trump's presidency could be described as a roller coaster full of strange and angry tweets, Russian conspiracy theories, and poor policy decisions. However, in spite of these things, President Trump stands a good chance at being re-elected, unless specific events happen, such as an economic recession or the democrats somehow find a good contender.
Trump Stands a Good Chance at being Re-elected
Although Trump has made some bad policy decisions and some bad posts on twitter, Trump is still an incumbent which makes it very likely that he will win the 2020 election. History even shows that incumbents usually win. Barack Obama and George W. Bush both won re-elections while the most recent president to not win re-election was President George H. W. Bush. There were a few reasons why Bush senior lost re-election. If some of these reasons manifest themselves in the next few years before or during the 2020 election then it could decrease Trump's chances of winning.
How George H. W. Bush Lost Re-election
Many people may take a simple look at the 1992 election and say that George H. W. Bush lost re-election because of the third party candidate Ross Perot, but its more complicated than that. Ross Perot running as a third party candidate did contribute to Bush senior's loss. However, in addition to losing supporters when he raised taxes after promising not to raise taxes, Bush lost many more supporters due to the state of the economy. At the time of Bush's re-election the US economy had just entered into a recession and voters were under the opinion that Bush wasn't working hard to address the problem.
Economics will Impact the 2020 Election
An economic recession occurring within the next few years is likely, considering the bullish financial markets and the current valuation of stocks. The US economy also seems to be in the middle of an economic expansion and Trump's economic policies, especially his tax policies, have the potential to exacerbate the economic expansion which could lead to a bigger economic bust, unless the Federal Reserve continues to use specific monetary policy instruments to counteract Trump's policies. For example, Trump's tax cuts would have increased the rate of inflation in the US economy if the Federal Reserve had not responded to Trump's tax cuts by increasing the federal funds interest rate.
An economic recession is certain to occur in the future. However, the question that must be asked is: when will this recession will occur? If the recession occurs before the 2020 election then Trump will likely lose the race, but if the recession happens after the 2020 election then Trump will most likely win re-election.
The Democratic Presidential Candidates
Some people also argue that George H. W. Bush's son, George W. Bush, won re-election due to his campaign and party emphasizing the war on terror, which brings up the point that if the US goes to war before Trump's re-election then he's nearly guaranteed to win re-election. But even if war doesn't happen, the democrats have no good contenders for the 2020 election. The 1992 election highlights how important it is to have good contenders. If the charismatic Bill Clinton wasn't running against George H. W. Bush, then Bush senior may have won election.
A few people have already announced their candidacy for the 2020 presidential election. So far we know that US Representative from Maryland John Delaney and entrepreneur Andrew Yang are running for the Democratic party. However, there are also several people who are looking like possible candidates that have yet to declare their candidacy, including Barack Obama's former vice president, Joe Biden, and entrepreneur and Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban. You can click here for a full list of possible presidential contenders.
Biden and Cuban are probably two of the people who have the best chance at beating President Trump in the 2020 election. Biden has much support, being called "the liberal everyman" by the Guardian. However, he is approaching the age of 80 and if elected would be America's oldest president. This could be problematic for people who think that 78 is too old to begin holding political office. Mark Cuban on the other hand is younger than both Biden and Trump and similar to Trump, Cuban is a businessman that can claim to be a political outsider. Cuban's more liberal political stance combined with his experience in business could also help him get votes from both the right and the left. However, Cuban's lack of government experience could possibly hurt his ability to form stances on political issues and ability to understand the political process. Whoever runs against Trump, we can be sure that they will have an uphill battle, possibly running against an incumbent during a time of strong economic growth.
Featured Image: Politico